La Nina Delayed, Monsoon Rains to Remain Strong
The highly anticipated La Nina climate pattern, which was originally expected to develop in August and bring favorable conditions for abundant monsoon rains in August-September, is now likely to be delayed by about a month. According to the latest forecast from US government weather agencies released on Thursday, La Nina is now expected to set in around September, the final month of India’s rainy season.
Despite the delay in La Nina, experts are not forecasting a major setback in monsoon rainfall for the June-September season. Currently, the monsoon is 3% below normal across the country, but this figure is expected to improve over the next two weeks.
The update from agencies affiliated with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates a 70% probability of La Nina developing in the August-September-October period, with a focus on September. The forecast suggests that the likelihood of La Nina forming in August has decreased to 48%. In the previous forecast released last month, the probability of La Nina occurring in August was reported at 65%.
During a La Nina event, surface waters in the east and central Pacific Ocean cool below threshold temperatures, leading to changes in wind currents that impact global weather patterns. This contrast is the opposite of El Nino, where abnormal warming occurs. La Nina typically enhances summer monsoon rainfall in India, while El Nino often suppresses it. The neutral phase falls between the two states.
Meteorologist M Rajeevan, former secretary of the Union earth sciences ministry, reassures that the predicted delay in La Nina should not be a cause for concern. The critical factor for the monsoon is whether the sea surface temperature anomaly in the region known as Nino 3.4 in the Pacific falls below zero. Currently, it is slightly above zero but is expected to drop into the negative zone by August, which usually strengthens the monsoon.
In conclusion, while La Nina may be delayed, the outlook for monsoon rains in India remains positive. Stay tuned for further updates on this evolving weather pattern.
